It's been a while since I updated this blog. Yesterday after another unfortunate session I noticed that my latest blog update was about a huge upswing I had during the end of 2008.
Usually I'm not that superstitious, but by posting all those beats I gave away I probably triggered some sort of doomswith.
So hopefully this post will turn it around again :-)
As you can understand I'm going through a very though stretch of hands. During those 2,5 years I played poker I always had periods of weeks (50k-70K hands) where I run bad, just as I had periods where I run superhot.
The last 3,5 months though are the worst I ever had. I'm playing around break-even now for around 200K hands, which is far more then I ever thought was possible in the games I play.
People always ask the reason behind this long stretch. Is it the financial crisis that is affecting the poker games? Has my luck run out? Are other players adjusting better to my game? Am I playing worse? Or is it just bad luck.....
It's difficult to answer those questions because it's obviously very easy to blame it all to badluck, but it's probably a mix from a lot of things.
Games are tougher then a year ago thats for sure, but especially the last 6 weeks I had tons of very good tables and lots of fish.
One problem is that there are just less (good) games running above NL600 and so you see a lot of good players moving down in stakes.
It's not that players have become so much better, it's more that there are more of them in comparison with the bad players.
Offcourse when I'm running this bad for so long, I'm not always playing my best game anymore, but I think I'm doing quite ok here, at least not tilting buy-ins away, but just some not so good calls and some missed value bets, but nothing spectacular.
Where I had a period of like 30 winning days in a row at the end of 2008, I now haven't won more then 3 days in a row for like 4 months.
Even though I played so much hands already I still underestimated how big variance can be in poker, so I'm quite happy I always had a very strict bankroll management, because I don't have to worry about going broke or having to move down in stakes.
I'm not going to post any hands or graphs, because it speaks for itselfs.
All I want to say is, don't ever underestimate how bad u can run, because it can always get worse.
See ya at the tables!
vrijdag, juli 17, 2009
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25 opmerkingen:
zou ik eigenlijk niet moeten zeggen, maar ik heb altijd veel aan je blog gehad, dus kijk eens naar je attempt to steal/fold to 3bet stats, lijken in mijn db beiden aan de exploiteerbaar hoge kant dit jaar...
Bedankt voor je reactie. Mijn fold to 3bet is inderdaad aan de TE hoge kant. En het is een van de 'leaks' waar ik al een tijdje mee bezig ben, maar ik merk dat ik te snel weer verval in teveel folden.
Qua steal snap ik niet helemaal wat je bedoeld, want die heb ik inderdaad ook flink verhoogd de laatste maanden oa door wat te experimenteren met 100% steal en dit bevalt me juist prima (die 100% niet op 400+ natuurlijk, maar wel minimaal 45%) en een te hoge steal lijkt me niet heel snel een leak, zeker niet in mijn geval (zit rond de 43% nu).
Hee Maurice, leuk om te zien dat je weer blogt. Kleine bijdrage, met zelfde reden als vorige poster. Heb altijd je blog gelezen en veel aan gehad.
Fold to 3b is idd veel te hoog.
Verder: alleen je steal % omhoog heeft geen zin. Als je hiermee begint moet je imo ook een plan hebben als mensen hierop terugspelen, bv 4b % omhoog, wijder 3b callen in positie, lichter afstacken, iets minder flop c-betten.
Alleen je prflop steal aanpassen zonder op andere vlakken ook aanpassingen te maken lijkt me te kort door de bocht imo.
Variance is a manifestation of random events occurring. The percentages will work things out eventually.
Good luck !
let jij eigenlijk wel op dingen als timing en gameflow?
Hey Niwle,
Bedankt voor je reactie. Ben absoluut met je eens dat het in combinatie moet zijn van meerdere factoren, dus meer stelen, betekend meer 3bets callen en dus lichter afstacken.
Zoals ik al aangaf ben ik hier de laatste tijd al wel mee bezig en is echt niet zo dat ik enkel meer open/steel, maar probeer ook gewoon meer potten in positie te spelen en mijn 4bet/5bet% iets te vergroten. In principe hangt dit natuurlijk allemaal met elkaar samen.
Dat mijn fold3bet veels te hoog is ben ik echter niet helemaal met je eens, ik denk namelijk dat het bij veel mensen eerder veels te laag is (<55%). Zelf zit ik in juli bv op 69% en zoals ik zelf al aangaf mik ik op iets van 60-65%, dus ja iets te hoog is het zeker nog wel.
Petje af verder voor je game de laatste tijd, dat ik je ooit heb genoemd als een van de betere 400 spelers klopt denk nog steeds ;-)
@ anoniem...geen idee of het een serieuze vraag is, maar lijkt me niet meer dan normaal dat ik daar op let. Timing wil echter niet altijd wat zeggen bij veel spelers, omdat ze of veel tafels spelen of zoals ik elke grote beslissing pas na 5 a 10 seconden neem om zo niks weg te geven qua timing.
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