zaterdag, maart 06, 2010

Variance

Variance is something I talked a lot about in my blog.
It's because it's so important to be aware of in poker and I believe that most players underestimate it tremendously.
Even some of the top players do so, for example Brian Townsend in his blog on cardrunners.

I've never played him, but from what I've heard and seen he's a good player, but when you're playing the biggest games on the internet and also mostly Omaha (which has a lot higher variance then holdem) you should be expect some massive swings.
And when I'm talking about massive I don't mean absolute $$, but just buyins and periods of hands when you're losing or playing break even.
If you see that on those stakes, most players probably don't play more then 10k - 20k hands a month, it's really easy to have a losing year.

If I look at myself I've had a period of 250k hands where I didn't win and I can say that I probably have a greater edge then any player in a nosebleed game where expected winrates are probably 3bb/100 at best. My play is also not that high variance (my stdev is around 75-80 bb/100) compared to well over 100 for Omaha I guess.

So if you take those things together (100+ st dev, 3bb expected winrate, 20k hands a month) then at the end of the year out of the 10 highstakes players who expect to win 3bb/100, 1 is losing money over this 250k hands....
The thing is that probably no player can't stand losing that long (timewise) so they move down. In the end it probably just means that the most lucky/brave/rich players will keep playing nosebleeds.

And players like Brian Townsend should just be very happy with himself that they runned so hot when taking their first shots, because without that it's probably impossible to play that stakes for longer then a month.

Ok so that's it for now. Need to post some hands again, that's a lot easier :-)
Ok just one then...really wanted to fold after he 17th bet me, but hey, I have AK!

***** Hand History for Game 5595205184 ***** (Everest)
$400.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, February 26, 01:58:12 ET 2010
Table Bamako10 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: 2cheap ( $72.00 USD )
Seat 2: Gerjandeman ( $363.00 USD )
Seat 3: BldZwtTrn ( $380.00 USD )
Seat 4: U_R_MY_GIMP ( $1004.00 USD )
Seat 5: Quesedilla87 ( $675.00 USD )
Seat 6: ismaelpsx ( $375.00 USD )
BldZwtTrn posts small blind [$2.00 USD].
U_R_MY_GIMP posts big blind [$4.00 USD].
Dealt to BldZwtTrn [ Ah Kd ]
** Dealing down cards **
Quesedilla87 folds
ismaelpsx folds
2cheap folds
Gerjandeman folds
BldZwtTrn raises [$10.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
BldZwtTrn raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP raises [$16.00 USD]
U_R_MY_GIMP wins $8.00 USD
BldZwtTrn shows [Ah, Kd ]
U_R_MY_GIMP shows [Jd, 5c ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9h, Qs, Ts ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Js ]
BldZwtTrn wins $757.00 USD from main pot

28 opmerkingen:

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