Still running good

The past 10 days have been very good. I'm obviously running good but also playing and (important) table selecting good at the NL1000 tables.

I also had a nice discussion with Kaby (oo_kaby on Everest) on pokernews about my w$wsf percentage (which is around 42-43 usually). He pointed me on the fact that a w$wsf this low (he thinks 45+ is optimal) is a decent leak.
I'm aware of the fact that it could be higher with me and that I might miss a few +EV spots now and then, but I'm still not sure it's that easy to tell.
For instance, my Went to SD and Won $ At SD are pretty high (28 and 53 respectively).

Usually people with higher w$wsf percentages have lower Won at SD percentages (between 48-50). And one important thing that they might miss, is that pots at showdown are usually bigger then pots that don't go to showdown.
Offcourse it's very difficult to say what's optimal here, but having a w$wsf too high could mean that you don't give villian's the opportunity to bluff enough.

I would like to hear some other opinions (especially from Everest players NL400+) on this discussion. For those who missed the discussion....this is the link: http://nl.pokernews.com/poker-forum/topic46313/

Still runnig good (400/600/1000):


For all the PokerEV-lovers, here a game analysis graph for January. It's easy to see my downswing (red-line way above blue) and the following upswing.

Best weekend ever

After a terrible week, I decided to play some during the weekend, especially during the night. It worked out pretty well and if games are always like this I might do it more. Just finished my first session of the day and I probably had the sickest run of cards in a long time. I won about 8 buy-ins in less then an hour.
Got aces 5 times and always there was action, no bad beats (maybe one) and so on.
Anyhow it's nice to recover from my biggest downswing in just 3 days.

Below a nice overview of the difference between running bad (5 weekdays) and running good (last 3 days).

Worst week ever.

This week was by far my worst poker week ever, results wise.
I lost every single day, which is probaly also a record (losing 5 days in a row).
In total I lost 15 buy-ins (mostly on NL600). I also managed to lose money with QQ/KK/AA and AKs.....quite an accomplishment I would say.
The fun thing was that I lost most of my money to terrible players.

Hands like the one below are a good example. Villian is a terrible (but passive!!! player). I'm perfectly happy with how I played the hand, but I should fold to his river raise.

EverestPoker Game #2670357043: Table Harare-11 - $5.00/$10.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:01:04 - 2008/01/17
Seat 1: Djegum ($1,008.50)
Seat 2: BldZwtTrn ($1,282.00)
Seat 3: I_Destroy_U ($1,000.00)
Seat 4: rafael70 ($1,259.75)
Seat 5: Memorax ($1,604.00)
Seat 6: Noroc2U ($1,336.00)
Noroc2U posts the small blind of $5.00
Djegum posts the big blind of $10.00
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[Js Ts]
BldZwtTrn raises to $35.00
I_Destroy_U folds
rafael70 calls $35.00
Memorax calls $35.00
Noroc2U folds
Djegum folds
*** FLOP *** [Jd Kh Tc]
BldZwtTrn bets $90.00
rafael70 calls $90.00
Memorax folds
*** TURN *** [Jd Kh Tc] [2c]
BldZwtTrn bets $256.00
rafael70 calls $256.00
*** RIVER *** [Jd Kh Tc 2c] [3h]
BldZwtTrn bets $450.00
rafael70 raises to $878.75 and is all-in
BldZwtTrn calls $428.75
*** SHOW DOWN ***
BldZwtTrn shows [Js Ts]
rafael70 shows [Qs Ah]
*** SUMMARY ***
Board: [Jd Kh Tc 2c 3h]
rafael70 collects $2,566.50

This hand is almost the same as the hand before, and again it is against a calling station and I should fold to his river raise. Again betting for value on 3 streets is perfectly standard against those players, but I need to fold when they raise me on the river.

EverestPoker Game #2670676002: Table Harare-2 - $5.00/$10.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:28:57 - 2008/01/17
Seat 1: BldZwtTrn ($1,030.00)
Seat 2: I_Destroy_U ($1,091.00)
Seat 3: salut_mec ($1,037.00)
Seat 4: merwin ($1,327.00)
Seat 5: tontondadou ($3,886.75)
Seat 6: ballegrep99 ($2,315.50)
ballegrep99 posts the small blind of $5.00
BldZwtTrn posts the big blind of $10.00
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[Ah Kh]
I_Destroy_U folds
salut_mec folds
merwin folds
tontondadou calls $10.00
ballegrep99 folds
BldZwtTrn raises to $35.00
tontondadou calls $25.00
*** FLOP *** [Ad 6h 6s]
BldZwtTrn bets $60.00
tontondadou calls $60.00
*** TURN *** [Ad 6h 6s] [Qc]
BldZwtTrn bets $150.00
tontondadou calls $150.00
*** RIVER *** [Ad 6h 6s Qc] [2s]
BldZwtTrn bets $325.00
tontondadou raises to $650.00
BldZwtTrn calls $325.00
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tontondadou shows [Qh Ac]
BldZwtTrn mucks
*** SUMMARY ***
Board: [Ad 6h 6s Qc 2s]
tontondadou collects $1,792.00

This is how you end up losing with AA....

EverestPoker Game #2664249613: Table Nassau-6 - $3.00/$6.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 01:13:05 - 2008/01/16
Seat 1: smokingjoep ($1,117.32)
Seat 2: ---DIO--- ($786.00)
Seat 3: BldZwtTrn ($970.95)
Seat 4: oo_kaby ($765.00)
Seat 5: MONAZ ($1,518.72)
Seat 6: minot ($730.26)
---DIO--- posts the small blind of $3.00
BldZwtTrn posts the big blind of $6.00
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[As Ac]
oo_kaby folds
MONAZ folds
minot folds
smokingjoep folds
---DIO--- raises to $18.00
BldZwtTrn raises to $60.00
---DIO--- raises to $180.00
BldZwtTrn calls $120.00
*** FLOP *** [5d 4c Ts]
---DIO--- bets $280.00
BldZwtTrn raises to $790.95 and is all-in
---DIO--- calls $326.00 and is all-in
Uncalled bet of $184.95 returned to BldZwtTrn
*** SHOW DOWN ***
---DIO--- shows [8h 6h]
BldZwtTrn shows [As Ac]
*** TURN *** [5d 4c Ts] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [5d 4c Ts 7s] [3d]
*** SUMMARY ***
Board: [5d 4c Ts 7s 3d]
---DIO--- collects $1,569.00

To recover a bit from my losses I decided to play some in the weekend and it was a good decision. I won about 11 buy-ins yesterday on NL400, so Im on my way back.

Stats freak

I'm probably a bit of a stats freak, but as a poker player thats probably a good thing. Once in a while I look into my PT database and try to look at all my stats over a big sample. Which hands are losing, how do specific hands do it from the blinds? By looking at this I can see if I'm overplaying some hands, or maybe opening to much hands.
My last database currently consist of 141K hands (almost 3 months). I think it's still not enough, but it gives some idea of hands that are winning/losing.

Some facts from this database:

Pocket pairs:
- Winning with all of them (AA 5,85 BB/hand)/KK/TT/QQ/JJ most profitable in that order)
- Most dealt (EV=~642 times) JJ -> 698 times
- Less dealt AA -> 565 times (as you can see there is still a huge difference here)

Suited connectors:
- Winning all playable hands 65s+ (AKs, KQs, JTs, 98s most profitable)
- Most dealt 54s(EV=~427 times) -> 441 times
- Less dealt KQs -> 398 times

Broadway hands not suited (JT+):
- Only losing with QTo (-0,01 BB hand), so not really losing, because it's better then nog playing the hand at all.
- Most profitable are AKo (1,22 BB/hand), AQo and AJo
- Most dealt (EV=~1298) KTo -> 1,373 times
- Less dealt KQo -> 1,251

Broadway hands suited:
- Losing with AJs (-0,08 BB/hand) and ATs (-0,11 BB/hand)
- Most profitable AKs (1,90 BB/hand), AQs and KJs
- Most dealt ATs -> 450 times
- Less dealt AQs -> 391 times

Suited aces:
- Losing with AJs,ATs and A7s (-0,18 BB/hand)

All hands:

When you look at how much you win/lose with hands it's not necesseraly bad when losing with a hand. Because when not playing the hand at all, you also lose a certain amount. For example 72o lost 0,15 BB per hand. So basically when I lose more then that I'm playing that hand unprofitabla for sure.

So which hands them I'm playing regularly (> 25% VPIP) are losing more then 0,15 BB/Hand....

K7s -0,16 BB/hand -> VPIP 25%
A7s -0,18 BB/hand -> VPIP 74%
J8s -0,18 BB/hand -> VPIP 35%
K8s -0,28 BB/hand -> VPIP 27%
86s -0,29 BB/hand -> VPIP 45%
J9s -0,38 BB/hand -> VPIP 57%
64s -0,39 BB/hand -> VPIP 35%
97s -0,48 BB/hand -> VPIP 69%

So as a conclusion I can say that I'm probably overplaying 97s (my favorite hand lol) and J9s a litte bit too much. But overall I'm pretty happy with those stats, as there are no real big losers.

This month:
Already played 20K hands which is good and I'm playing really well and I'm up almost $0,60 cent a hand and I'm aiming for $0,40 - $0,50 this year so running above expectation so far.

Ace high baby

Hands like the one showed below always feel nice, but especially when it's the very first hand at the table. So I didn't know the player and could only use my pattern mapper and timing tells (instant pot bet the river for example).
Offcourse this board texture is probably the best possible to make a call like this and as I have the Ace of hearts its very unlikely he has a bigger ace.

EverestPoker Game #2619097835: Table Nassau-1 - $3.00/$6.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:42:57 - 2008/01/07
Seat 1: blackschole ($494.38)
Seat 2: tygKen ($552.90)
Seat 3: StAr-K ($414.10)
Seat 5: BldZwtTrn ($600.00)
Seat 6: I_Destroy_U ($901.40)
StAr-K posts the small blind of $3.00
BldZwtTrn posts the big blind of $6.00
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[7h Ah]
I_Destroy_U folds
blackschole folds
tygKen folds
StAr-K calls $3.00
BldZwtTrn raises to $18.00
StAr-K calls $12.00
*** FLOP *** [6h 9h 6d]
StAr-K checks
BldZwtTrn bets $27.00
StAr-K calls $27.00
*** TURN *** [6h 9h 6d] [Qd]
StAr-K checks
BldZwtTrn bets $60.00
StAr-K calls $60.00
*** RIVER *** [6h 9h 6d Qd] [3c]
StAr-K bets $210.00
BldZwtTrn calls $210.00
*** SHOW DOWN ***
StAr-K shows [Th Kd]
BldZwtTrn shows [7h Ah]
*** SUMMARY ***
Board: [6h 9h 6d Qd 3c]
BldZwtTrn collects $628.00

Thinking about your game

To improve as a poker player it's important to look critical your game from time to time.
It helps to read articles and watch video's from other players, who may have an other view on certain situations.
When playing as much as I do, I notice that I'm sometimes playing as a machine. The positive side of this is that I never tilt, but the downside is that I play some hands/situations the same too often.

A few days ago a read an article on 2+2 (could not find it back), but one thing in this article was about 'upfront' and 'backdoor' agression. It really opened my eyes a little, because a lot of the good players (including me) know how to use upfront agression (continuation betting, double barrel, triple barrel and so on), but using backdoor agression in a good way is a lot more difficult, but makes you so much tougher to play against.

Backdoor agression is about check-raising flops/turn/river when you are the pre-flop agressor. It's also about leading into the raiser (AKA donk betting). I think when your capable of balancing this agression into your game with strong/mediocre and (semi)- bluff hands it really makes you a bigger winner in most games and also a lot tougher to play against.

Triple barrel gone wrong

Finally I like to show a triple barrel that went wrong in a HU game against a pretty good player (his stats were 49/40/3 or something like that) and he views me as a good, but tight player (my HU stats are 38/34/3).

This hand made me think about 3-barreling ranges. On the river I'm about 100% sure that his best possible hand on this board is QT (AT would have been re-raised pre-flop and 2-pair+ would have bet the river/turn).
On the other hand he knows that the king on the turn is a perfect second barrel card for me and when I bet the river he probably knows I have 2pair+ or nothing here, because a lot of the time a hand like AK would check behind on turn or river.

I'm not sure if I like his call here so much, because I could be bluffing with better hands here, but it made me think of why it's so important to value bet thin against players like this. It not only makes you tougher to play, but it also makes your range a lot wider then just top2 or nothing when betting 3 streets.

EverestPoker Game #2604287733: Table Luanda-1 - $3.00/$6.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:58:05 - 2008/01/04
Seat 1: BldZwtTrn ($1,706.00)
Seat 2: tagomaga ($881.00)
BldZwtTrn posts the small blind of $3.00
tagomaga posts the big blind of $6.00
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[Qh Jd]
BldZwtTrn raises to $18.00
tagomaga calls $12.00
*** FLOP *** [Ts 2d 6c]
tagomaga checks
BldZwtTrn bets $27.00
tagomaga calls $27.00
*** TURN *** [Ts 2d 6c] [Kc]
tagomaga checks
BldZwtTrn bets $69.00
tagomaga calls $69.00
*** RIVER *** [Ts 2d 6c Kc] [8s]
tagomaga checks
BldZwtTrn bets $164.00
tagomaga calls $164.00
*** SHOW DOWN ***
BldZwtTrn shows [Qh Jd]
tagomaga shows [6h 5c]
*** SUMMARY ***
Board: [Ts 2d 6c Kc 8s]
tagomaga collects $555.00