Bit of an upswing

For those who where worried about my bad run, I think I'm having a little bit of an upswing the past 5 days. Even had a set over set for 200BB.
Patience is really the key even if you're running worse then you would ever expect, if you're a good/winning player that upswing will come, just don't start tilting/playing bad.

My first 2 months of being a pro

It's now 2 months ago since I started my career as a full time poker pro.
Most things went as expected but offcourse there are always things that you don't expect when you make the decision.

Positive things:
- lots of free time
- I don't get bored with poker even though I play ~100K hands a month
- Still eager to learn and study on my leaks
- Still have the discipline to play NL200/NL400 even though I'm way overrolled
- Nice income

'Negative' things
- It's pretty hard to 8-table 8 hours per day 5 days a week
- It's difficult not to get your mood affected by swings
- Being alone all the time (offcourse not all the time, but 80% of the time)

Then the hard facts for these 2 months of playing poker:

Since 11 february:
Hands played : 191,831
$ Won in cashgames : VW Golf TDI 2.0
PTBB/100 NL200 (75% hands) : 5,24
PTBB/100 NL400 (25% hands) : 2,93
MT ratio : 6,92
Hourly win rate: $127,31

Last but not least:
Thanks for all the support and comments that are coming in every post.
Since my last post I had 2 nice sessions so hopefully this will be the start of an upswing. And I'm thinking about another strategy article to write about, but still don't know about what part.

Other stupid facts:
Biggest losing hand (absolute): J3o (Never played that hand, so it's just from losing blinds)
Biggest losing hand that I've voluntary played: A9s
Biggest winners: 99+, AQo+, AQs+ and 97s (my favorite hand)
Most dealt PP: 77(901 times)
Less dealt PP: 66(842 times)
Most dealt hand total: 72o (1840 times, not a joke)
Less dealt hand total: 87s (524 times)

Saga continues

I never thought a break even streak as I'm in now was possible.
Almost 50K hands without profit. It's really puts my confidence to the test.
Maybe to get some confidence back I'm posting 7 hands here where I played a big pot and I'd like to get some advice on them. Please tell me which hand u would have played different. The hands will not only be losers/bad beats, just some random big pots.

Hand 1:
EverestPoker Game #1375788953: Table Suva-8 - $1.00/$2.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:21:13 - 2007/04/10
Seat 1: TheLoon ($223.75)
Seat 2: PetterLund ($217.70)
Seat 3: BldZwtTrn ($200.00)
Seat 4: Roedy ($207.90)
Seat 5: HertigTorulf ($256.70)
Seat 6: ChasseurAlp1 ($196.15) ->>> 40/7/2 (not a good player)
TheLoon posts the small blind of $1.00
PetterLund posts the big blind of $2.00
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[Qc Kh]
BldZwtTrn raises to $7.00
Roedy folds
HertigTorulf folds
ChasseurAlp1 calls $7.00
TheLoon folds
PetterLund folds
*** FLOP *** [Th Qs Kc]
BldZwtTrn bets $13.00
ChasseurAlp1 calls $13.00
*** TURN *** [Th Qs Kc] [4s]
BldZwtTrn checks
ChasseurAlp1 bets $16.00
BldZwtTrn raises to $69.00
ChasseurAlp1 raises to $176.15 and is all-in
BldZwtTrn calls $107.15

Hand 2:
EverestPoker Game #1375371931: Table Bamako-4 - $2.00/$4.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 08:51:43 - 2007/04/10
Seat 1: Kaffedopp ($394.00)
Seat 2: BldZwtTrn ($414.00)
Seat 3: Memorax ($686.90)
Seat 4: erikzamboer ($794.90)
Seat 5: nickalex ($562.00) ->>> 54/4/2 (big fish)
Seat 6: bertje49 ($72.99)
BldZwtTrn posts the small blind of $2.00
Memorax posts the big blind of $4.00
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[Ac Ad]
erikzamboer folds
nickalex calls $4.00
bertje49 folds
Kaffedopp folds
BldZwtTrn raises to $16.00
Memorax folds
nickalex calls $12.00
*** FLOP *** [Kd Ts 6h]
BldZwtTrn bets $27.00
nickalex raises to $54.00
BldZwtTrn calls $27.00
*** TURN *** [Kd Ts 6h] [4h]
BldZwtTrn checks
nickalex bets $144.00
BldZwtTrn raises to $344.00 and is all-in
nickalex raises to $492.00 and is all-in
Uncalled bet of $148.00 returned to nickalex

Hand 3:
EverestPoker Game #1371988436: Table Suva-26 - $1.00/$2.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:29:44 - 2007/04/09
Seat 1: tang10 ($205.05)
Seat 2: King_Hassan ($185.00)
Seat 3: bandito000 ($197.00)
Seat 4: VITRONI ($358.15) ->>> 40/7/2 (bad player)
Seat 5: xXxname ($223.45)
Seat 6: BldZwtTrn ($200.00)
xXxname posts the small blind of $1.00
BldZwtTrn posts the big blind of $2.00
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[5h 6h]
tang10 folds
King_Hassan calls $2.00
bandito000 calls $2.00
VITRONI calls $2.00
xXxname calls $1.00
BldZwtTrn checks
*** FLOP *** [5d 6c 9d]
xXxname checks
BldZwtTrn bets $6.00
King_Hassan folds
bandito000 folds
VITRONI raises to $12.00
xXxname folds
BldZwtTrn raises to $39.00
VITRONI calls $27.00
*** TURN *** [5d 6c 9d] [3c]
BldZwtTrn checks
VITRONI bets $88.00
BldZwtTrn raises to $159.00 and is all-in
VITRONI calls $71.00

Hand 4:
EverestPoker Game #1371939358: Table Bamako-5 - $2.00/$4.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:18:29 - 2007/04/09
Seat 1: stoufette ($413.00) ->>> unknown player
Seat 2: PokerNL1978 ($126.50)
Seat 3: denise86_ ($563.90)
Seat 4: immortal8 ($485.30)
Seat 5: BldZwtTrn ($400.00)
Seat 6: PokerRuler ($400.00)
stoufette posts the small blind of $2.00
PokerNL1978 posts the big blind of $4.00
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[3c 3h]
immortal8 folds
BldZwtTrn raises to $14.00
PokerRuler raises to $46.00
stoufette calls $44.00
PokerNL1978 folds
BldZwtTrn calls $32.00
*** FLOP *** [Ks 3s Th]
stoufette bets $367.00 and is all-in
BldZwtTrn calls $354.00 and is all-in
PokerRuler folds
Uncalled bet of $13.00 returned to stoufette
stoufette collects $848.00

Hand 5:

EverestPoker Game #1372592610: Table Suva-20 - $1.00/$2.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:39:34 - 2007/04/09
Seat 1: BUBAL ($114.50) ->>>> fish
Seat 2: BldZwtTrn ($590.00)
Seat 3: islandfrog ($251.95)
Seat 4: pietkeur ($210.30) ->>> fish
Seat 5: Mindelf ($194.00)
Seat 6: Aasisdebaas ($200.70)
Aasisdebaas posts the small blind of $1.00
BUBAL posts the big blind of $2.00
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[Jh Jd]
BldZwtTrn raises to $7.00
islandfrog folds
pietkeur calls $7.00
Mindelf folds
Aasisdebaas folds
BUBAL calls $5.00
*** FLOP *** [8c 4c 9d]
BUBAL bets $22.00
BldZwtTrn raises to $70.00
pietkeur calls $70.00
BUBAL folds
*** TURN *** [8c 4c 9d] [6s]
BldZwtTrn bets $184.00
pietkeur calls $133.30 and is all-in
Uncalled bet of $50.70 returned to BldZwtTrn


Hand 6:

EverestPoker Game #1371284830: Table Suva-15 - $1.00/$2.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:40:10 - 2007/04/09
Seat 1: BldZwtTrn ($360.67)
Seat 2: Leodium ($200.00)
Seat 3: Mindelf ($261.20)
Seat 4: chato04 ($231.94) ->> good/TAG player
chato04 posts the small blind of $1.00
BldZwtTrn posts the big blind of $2.00
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[5c 6c]
Leodium folds
Mindelf raises to $7.00
chato04 calls $6.00
BldZwtTrn calls $5.00
*** FLOP *** [7s 8c Qc]
chato04 checks
BldZwtTrn bets $14.00
Mindelf folds
chato04 raises to $50.00
BldZwtTrn raises to $171.00
chato04 raises to $224.94 and is all-in
BldZwtTrn calls $53.94

Hand 7:

EverestPoker Game #1358583569: Table Suva-1 - $1.00/$2.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:03:01 - 2007/04/06
Seat 1: Mr_Ace_Ass ($299.85)
Seat 2: Itto ($599.15)
Seat 3: Waw ($200.00)
Seat 4: pokerhein ($576.26) ->>> 23/20/3 (good)
Seat 5: BldZwtTrn ($195.00)
Seat 6: Aegerti ($165.70)
BldZwtTrn posts the small blind of $1.00
Aegerti posts the big blind of $2.00
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BldZwtTrn[Ad Kc]
Mr_Ace_Ass raises to $7.00
Itto folds
Waw calls $7.00
pokerhein calls $7.00
BldZwtTrn raises to $35.00
Aegerti folds
Mr_Ace_Ass calls $28.00
Waw folds
pokerhein calls $28.00
*** FLOP *** [5s Th 5d]
BldZwtTrn checks
Mr_Ace_Ass checks
pokerhein checks
*** TURN *** [5s Th 5d] [Ac]
BldZwtTrn checks
Mr_Ace_Ass checks
pokerhein bets $75.00
BldZwtTrn calls $75.00
Mr_Ace_Ass folds
*** RIVER *** [5s Th 5d Ac] [9h]
BldZwtTrn checks
pokerhein bets $264.00
BldZwtTrn calls $85.00 and is all-in
Uncalled bet of $179.00 returned to pokerhein

Difficult week

The past week was the worst since I started to play full time.
I'm basically break even since last thursday (8 days of poker).
Its still not a really big downswing since my lowest point was about 8 buy-ins below my highest, but it's just frustrating to play 30K hands and not win a single dollar.

It's not only bad luck that caused that downswing (althought the quads against my set/boat at the same time at two different tables was amazing).
I also did make some bad plays offcourse, but I also noticed that the players are getting better and that there is not as much fish as before.

I also talked to two other Dutch regular players and they were experiencing the exact same thing. So as I was afraid off.....poker is just like the stock exchange (although not so fast yet)....when there are price differences (high fish to regular ratio) the marketmaker (regular) steps in and takes the profit. As the ratio decreases, winrates for regulars will drop and variance will increase.
Offcourse the good players will always make profits, but winrates of 8+ are just not possible over a long stretch of time.

April only:
Hands played : 18,087 (20% NL400)
$ Won in cashgames : $1,245
PTBB/100 : 2,08 (yihaaa)
MT ratio : 6,40
Hourly win rate: $25,09 (SHIIIIIIIIP IT!!!)

March Graph

This is my March graph, with a nice downswing at the end, although still my best month ever.

Back on track

After a slow start of the month, the last 2 weeks have been really good, especially on NL400. I've won on 16 days in a row now, for an amount of 1K per day. So the goal that I've set at the beginning of the month is still achievable although I don't think that I can play 100K hands this month. So far I played 79K and I'm up a little bit more then 20K.

Furthermore, I don't have much to write about, maybe some readers have some questions or things they like to know and I can try to write something about it.

March only:

Hands played : 78,926 (25% NL400)

$ Won in cashgames : $20,271

PTBB/100 : 5,15 (5,23 @ NL200)

MT ratio : 6,75

Hourly win rate: $145,82

Raising for information

This is not technical chart from the stock market in the nineties but my profit graph on Everest.



Raising for information is something I hear a lot op players say when I ask why they are raising a certain (scary) flop. Usually it's a terrible thing to do and I don't like the reasoning at all. Raising should be for value, isolation, to let draws pay or to bluff, but not to get information with a hand that has showdown value.

Its difficult to find a lot of examples but it's usually a situation when your raised on a scary flop (paired board is the best example as there are not a lot of draws).

For example the hand below:

POKERSTARS GAME #8579094315: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/02/23 - 03:24:32 (ET)
Table 'Caprera' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: AKA_PSV ($235.50 in chips)
Seat 2: hard2tel ($199 in chips)
Seat 4: LUVTHEGUTTY ($179 in chips)
Seat 5: Zadan ($225.45 in chips)
Seat 6: jgonzales ($151.35 in chips)
Zadan: posts small blind $1
jgonzales: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AKA_PSV [Ac As]
AKA_PSV: raises $6 to $8
hard2tel: folds
LUVTHEGUTTY: calls $8
Zadan: folds
jgonzales: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [Qh Qs 6c] -> This is what you could call a 'scary flop' for aces.
jgonzales: checks
AKA_PSV: bets $14 -> Make a normal c-bet
LUVTHEGUTTY: folds
jgonzales: raises $16 to $30
AKA_PSV: calls $16 -> This is a situation where raising is absolutely terrible, a lot of players are not raising a Queen here and are raising the flop for information themself with a lower pair or as a total bluff to scare me. By re-raising I make all worse hands fold en better hands call....
*** TURN *** [Qh Qs 6c] [5d]
jgonzales: bets $26
AKA_PSV: calls $26
*** RIVER *** [Qh Qs 6c 5d] [5s]
jgonzales: bets $24
AKA_PSV: calls $24
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jgonzales: shows [Ts Td] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
AKA_PSV: shows [Ac As] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
AKA_PSV collected $183 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $185 Rake $2
Board [Qh Qs 6c 5d 5s]
Seat 1: AKA_PSV showed [Ac As] and won ($183) with two pair, Aces and Queens
Seat 2: hard2tel folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: LUVTHEGUTTY (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: Zadan (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: jgonzales (big blind) showed [Ts Td] and lost with two pair, Queens and Tens

Then my month so far. I'm back on track. Due to the not so good start of the month I will probably not make my 25K goal, but I'm still doing good. Especially on NL400 I'm finally a little but more lucky.
For March my winrate on NL200 over 50K hands is 5 and @ NL400 I'm now at 4 over 15K hands.

March only:
Hands played : 64,682 (20% NL400)
$ Won in cashgames : $15,438
PTBB/100 : 4,76 (5,01 @ NL200)
MT ratio : 7,09
Hourly win rate: $136,09

100K hands @ NL200

I've done it. I played 100K hands at NL200 on Everest. Offcourse I'm playing NL400 as well, but during daytime there aren't a lot of tables availabe so I'm mostly playing NL200.

My winrate over this 100K hands is 7,11 PTBB/100. For a long time I stayed above 8, but the last 40K went a little bit slower. It's always difficult to say if it was because I had luck in the first 60K hands or if I were unlucky in the last 40K.

I also looked at blocks of hands within this 100K sample to get to know something more about swings. Here's what I found out:

If I look at blocks of 5K hands my winrate is between 0,35 and 14,72
If I look at blocks of 10K hands my winrate is between 3,26 and 11.88
If I look at blocks of 20K hands my winrate is between 4,57 and 10.08
If I look at blocks of 50K hands my winrate is between 5,46 and 8.72

The conclusion of this is that a sample size of 50K becomes somewhat significant, but before that it's pretty meaningless. (I also only looked at fixed blocks of hands and if I had looked at variable blocks the swings would be bigger for sure)

March only:
Hands played : 44,405 (20% NL400)
$ Won in cashgames : $8,068.09
PTBB/100 : 3.94 (4,45 @ NL200)
MT ratio : 7,08
Hourly win rate: $101,14

March is starting slow

The beginning of March was not so great as the end of February.
In a session on NL400 I lost 5 buy-ins in less then a hour!!
And the funny thing was....I played almost without a mistake.

But when people can't laydown AJo....and I'm not hitting my draw its getting difficult.

***** Hand History for Game 1188815248 *****
0/0 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) - THU MAR 01 19:58:22 EDT 2007
Table Bamako-0 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: PLaToN ( $15.36)
Seat 2: algouz ( $496.24)
Seat 3: BldZwtTrn ( $369.84)
Seat 4: FishHoven ( $646.22)
Seat 5: d3fault ( $394.0)
Seat 6: chillyah ( $399.52)
BldZwtTrn posts small blind (2.0).
FishHoven posts big blind (4.0).
Dealt to BldZwtTrn [ Qd, Kd ]
d3fault folds.
chillyah folds.
PLaToN calls (4.0)
algouz calls (4.0)
BldZwtTrn raises (18.0) to 20.0
FishHoven folds.
PLaToN calls (11.36)
PLaToN is all-In.
algouz calls (16.0)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5s, Td, Ad ]
BldZwtTrn bets (40.0)
algouz raises (80.0) to 80.0
BldZwtTrn raises (208.0) to 248.0
algouz calls (168.0)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2h ]
BldZwtTrn bets (101.84)
BldZwtTrn is all-In.
algouz calls (101.84)
** Dealing River ** : [ Th ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $50.08 | Side Pot 1: $705.96 | Rake: $3.0
Board: [ 5s Td Ad 2h Th ]
PLaToN balance $0, bet $0, lost $0.0 [ Qs Kh ] [ ]
algouz balance $0, bet $0, collected $756.04, net +$0 [ Jc Ah ] [ ]
BldZwtTrn balance $0, bet $0, lost $0.0 [ Qd Kd ] [ ]

Or when people push there (obvious) draw with a massive overbet and still hit.

***** Hand History for Game 1188828232 *****
0/0 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) - THU MAR 01 20:00:52 EDT 2007
Table Bamako-6 (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Sebboss ( $450.88)
Seat 2: d3fault ( $396.0)
Seat 3: BldZwtTrn ( $394.0)
Seat 5: Ernesto_777 ( $981.96)
Seat 6: Malene76 ( $951.84)
d3fault posts small blind (2.0).
BldZwtTrn posts big blind (4.0).
Dealt to BldZwtTrn [ Jc, Ac ]
Ernesto_777 folds.
Malene76 folds.
Sebboss folds.
d3fault calls (2.0)
BldZwtTrn raises (8.0) to 12.0
d3fault calls (8.0)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3h, Jd, 7h ]
d3fault checks.
BldZwtTrn bets (17.0)
d3fault raises (70.0) to 70.0
BldZwtTrn calls (53.0)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 9d ]
d3fault bets (314.0)
d3fault is all-In.
BldZwtTrn calls (312.0)
BldZwtTrn is all-In.
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $785.0 | Rake: $3.0
Board: [ 3h Jd 7h 9d 4h ]
d3fault balance $0, bet $0, collected $787.0, net +$0 [ Qh 9h ] [ ]
BldZwtTrn balance $0, bet $0, lost $0.0 [ Jc Ac ] [ ]

Or when the deck is just as cold as ice....

***** Hand History for Game 1188806098 *****
0/0 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) - THU MAR 01 19:56:33 EDT 2007
Table Bamako-11 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: Djegum ( $377.36)
Seat 2: jean-mary974 ( $230.52)
Seat 3: BldZwtTrn ( $421.0)
Seat 4: Sebboss ( $394.0)
Seat 5: Spevel81 ( $444.0)
Seat 6: torp35 ( $420.28)
Djegum posts small blind (2.0).
jean-mary974 posts big blind (4.0).
Dealt to BldZwtTrn [ As, Ad ]
BldZwtTrn raises (14.0) to 14.0
Sebboss calls (14.0)
Spevel81 folds.
torp35 folds.
Djegum folds.
jean-mary974 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ts, Qc, Ac ]
BldZwtTrn bets (25.0)
Sebboss raises (85.0) to 85.0
BldZwtTrn calls (60.0)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 6h ]
BldZwtTrn checks.
Sebboss bets (130.0)
BldZwtTrn raises (322.0) to 322.0
BldZwtTrn is all-In.
Sebboss calls (165.0)
Sebboss is all-In.
** Dealing River ** : [ 7c ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $791.0 | Rake: $3.0
Board: [ Ts Qc Ac 6h 7c ]
BldZwtTrn balance $0, bet $0, collected $27.0, net +$0 [ As Ad ] [ ]
Sebboss balance $0, bet $0, collected $791.0, net +$0 [ Kc Jc ] [ ]

***** Hand History for Game 1188987563 *****
0/0 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) - THU MAR 01 20:32:12 EDT 2007
Table Bamako-11 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: glasleer ( $80.76)
Seat 3: BldZwtTrn ( $615.36)
Seat 4: Sebboss ( $850.42)
Seat 5: Spevel81 ( $393.94)
Seat 6: tonicherm ( $120.1)
Spevel81 posts small blind (2.0).
tonicherm posts big blind (4.0).
Dealt to BldZwtTrn [ 9c, Ac ]
glasleer calls (4.0)
BldZwtTrn raises (18.0) to 18.0
Sebboss calls (18.0)
Spevel81 folds.
tonicherm folds.
glasleer folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6d, 9s, As ]
BldZwtTrn bets (33.0)
Sebboss raises (100.0) to 100.0
BldZwtTrn calls (67.0)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Jd ]
BldZwtTrn checks.
Sebboss checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ 7d ]
BldZwtTrn checks.
Sebboss bets (200.0)
BldZwtTrn calls (200.0)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $643.0 | Rake: $3.0
Board: [ 6d 9s As Jd 7d ]
BldZwtTrn balance $0, bet $0, lost $0.0 [ 9c Ac ] [ ]
Sebboss balance $0, bet $0, collected $643.0, net +$0 [ Ad Ah ] [ ]

Or when I have a perfect read, but people still call against the odds...

***** Hand History for Game 1192397851 *****
0/0 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) - FRI MAR 02 15:15:50 EDT 2007
Table Suva-10 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: Macspower ( $264.9)
Seat 2: Xena79 ( $219.92)
Seat 4: vagram ( $200.0)
Seat 5: BldZwtTrn ( $208.6)
Seat 6: Masterpolo ( $188.26)
BldZwtTrn posts small blind (1.0).
Masterpolo posts big blind (2.0).
Dealt to BldZwtTrn [ Qc, Ah ]
Macspower folds.
Xena79 folds.
BldZwtTrn raises (5.0) to 6.0
Masterpolo calls (4.0)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3h, 8c, 3c ]
BldZwtTrn bets (8.0)
Masterpolo raises (16.0) to 16.0
BldZwtTrn raises (44.0) to 52.0
Masterpolo calls (36.0)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Th ]
BldZwtTrn checks.
Masterpolo bets (24.0)
BldZwtTrn raises (150.6) to 150.6
BldZwtTrn is all-In.
Masterpolo calls (106.26)
Masterpolo is all-In.
** Dealing River ** : [ 9c ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $373.52 | Rake: $3.0
Board: [ 3h 8c 3c Th 9c ]
BldZwtTrn balance $0, bet $0, collected $20.34, net +$0 [ Qc Ah ] [ ]
Masterpolo balance $0, bet $0, collected $373.52, net +$0 [ Ac 5c ] [ ]

Or when you're sets get outdrawn...

***** Hand History for Game 1197517701 *****
0/0 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) - SAT MAR 03 15:16:37 EDT 2007
Table Suva-18 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: tang10 ( $374.11)
Seat 2: obut ( $346.09)
Seat 3: croate ( $54.4)
Seat 4: leotaq ( $134.12)
Seat 5: BldZwtTrn ( $261.44)
Seat 6: DaniStar5 ( $389.02)
tang10 posts small blind (1.0).
obut posts big blind (2.0).
Dealt to BldZwtTrn [ 9d, 9s ]
croate folds.
leotaq folds.
BldZwtTrn raises (7.0) to 7.0
DaniStar5 calls (7.0)
tang10 calls (6.0)
obut folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qd, 9h, 4h ]
tang10 checks.
BldZwtTrn bets (16.0)
DaniStar5 calls (16.0)
tang10 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4s ]
BldZwtTrn checks.
DaniStar5 bets (32.0)
BldZwtTrn raises (105.0) to 105.0
DaniStar5 raises (334.02) to 366.02
DaniStar5 is all-In.
BldZwtTrn calls (133.44)
BldZwtTrn is all-In.
** Dealing River ** : [ Qc ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $528.88 | Rake: $3.0
Board: [ Qd 9h 4h 4s Qc ]
BldZwtTrn balance $0, bet $0, lost $0.0 [ 9d 9s ] [ ]
DaniStar5 balance $0, bet $0, collected $656.46, net +$0 [ Qh Ks ] [ ]

Well overall, I still made some good money, I just had a few sessions that were very unlucky. But thats the variance u have to deal with.

March only:
Hands played : 16,005 (15% NL400)
$ Won in cashgames : $2,606.35 (lost money on NL400)
PTBB/100 : 4,33 (5,57 @ NL200)
MT ratio : 7,57
Hourly win rate: $104,05

2007 only:
Hands played : 124,653
$ Won in cashgames : $32,606.93
PTBB/100 : 6,19 (7,97 @ NL200)
MT ratio : 6,77
Hourly win rate: $154,38

My edge

In the comments someone asked me what I think my edge against (most) other players is and why I'm winning and some others not....

This is a question I ask myself a lot as well and also makes me a little afraid.
I have a background in the financial world and one of the things you learn there is the efficient market theory. In a lot of ways the pokerworld is comparable to a stock exchange but somehow in the pokerworld the world is not efficient at all.

All the information is available to everybody but somehow, there are people who don't use all those information. Some people just don't care because they wanne gamble. Others don't have the time to study the game and so on.

The thing that makes me afraid is that making so much money as easy as with poker HAS to make the 'market' more effecient in the long run. Players are gonna get better and losing players will leave the market. The question is.....what is the long run in poker (6 months or 3 years?????)

Offcourse not everyone can be a winning poker player, some skills that you need to have to be a winning player are:

* Having great discipline (the most important thing I would say)
* Analytical (good with numbers)
* Eager to learn and improve your game
* Flexible (able to adjust to different situations)
* Mentally stable

And remember this:
* Winning players see a bad beat as a reason to play more poker and losing players see a bad beat as a reason to quit poker.

Then my first month as a pro....although I only played 2,5 weeks this month, due to my holiday, I still exceeded my expectation by far.

February only:
Hands played : 65,980
$ Won in cashgames : $19,447.33
PTBB/100 : 6,85
MT ratio : 7,17
Hourly win rate: $183,26

GOALS MARCH 2007:
Play 100K hands with a profit of $25K

Best day ever....

It's getting a little bit boring but today was my best day of poker ever.
I played for 7 hours and a total of 4,995 hands.
And this were my profits:

NL400 Everest +$ 2,228.79 19,02 PTBB/100
NL200 Everest +$ 1,250.94 18,79 PTBB/100
NL200 Stars +$ 382,85 5,13 PTBB/100

Total +$ 3,862.58 13,75 PTBB/100

I also include my new updated and very sick low variance graph of NL200 since January 12.

2007 only:
Hands played : 99,177
$ Won in cashgames : $27,918.29
PTBB/100 : 6,70 (9,2 on Everest, 4,0 on Stars)
MT ratio : 6,61
Hourly win rate: $163,25
Current BR: $53K

Cleaning out the tables

Yesterday evening I had some time to play again. Since I'm pro I don't play much in the weekend anymore but it always strikes me how big the difference is. So once in a while I play to get a little extra profit.
In the session from yesterday I probably stacked more people (lots of shorties offcourse) then Jamie Gold during the last WSOP ;-)

Most of this was on tables were I was HU and people kept taking shots at me.
It always strikes me that almost all the regulars on Everest are leaving the table immediately when they're HU or 3-handed against me.
But anyhow, this night I got my money in almost always as a favorite against the shorties and the strange thing was that I won nearly all of this all-in situations. I think that I won more then 10 60/40 situations in a row. Which on itself is offcourse very lucky but I made the right decision every single time and that's what matters.

On one table I was HU with a fullstack (non regular) and I really got him tilting of his whole stack. Check this 3 hands that did the job...

First one is probably a standard HU hand. Also note that his POT bet on the river was instant, which made it an easy call for me.

***** Hand History for Game 1161428831 *****
0/0 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) - SAT FEB 24 02:51:47 EDT 2007
Table Suva-23 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Seat 4: BldZwtTrn ( $494.42)
Seat 5: caton ( $259.16)
caton posts small blind (1.0).
BldZwtTrn posts big blind (2.0).
Dealt to BldZwtTrn [ Th, Ah ]
caton raises (5.0) to 6.0
BldZwtTrn raises (16.0) to 18.0
caton calls (12.0)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Kd, 8d, 9c ]
BldZwtTrn bets (25.0)
caton calls (25.0)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3h ]
BldZwtTrn checks.
caton checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ Tc ]
BldZwtTrn checks.
caton bets (86.0)
BldZwtTrn calls (86.0)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $255.0 | Rake: $3.0
Board: [ Kd 8d 9c 3h Tc ]
BldZwtTrn balance $0, bet $0, collected $255.0, net +$0 [ Th Ah ] [ ]
caton balance $0, bet $0, lost $0.0 [ Qh Ad ] [ ]

This second hand is almost identical.

***** Hand History for Game 1161451993 *****
0/0 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) - SAT FEB 24 03:00:20 EDT 2007
Table Suva-23 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Seat 4: BldZwtTrn ( $519.06)
Seat 5: caton ( $218.72)
BldZwtTrn posts small blind (1.0).
caton posts big blind (2.0).
Dealt to BldZwtTrn [ Qd, Th ]
BldZwtTrn raises (5.0) to 6.0
caton calls (4.0)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qh, Jd, 6h ]
caton bets (12.0)
BldZwtTrn calls (12.0)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kd ]
caton checks.
BldZwtTrn checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ 2s ]
caton bets (36.0)
BldZwtTrn calls (36.0)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $105.0 | Rake: $3.0
Board: [ Qh Jd 6h Kd 2s ]
BldZwtTrn balance $0, bet $0, collected $105.0, net +$0 [ Qd Th ] [ ]
caton balance $0, bet $0, lost $0.0 [ Jh 8c ] [ ]

And this is the final one. My raise on the flop is ugly by the way, it should have been a push, but I was almost timing out there and so this stupid min raise came out that offcourse committed me.

***** Hand History for Game 1161455023 *****
0/0 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) - SAT FEB 24 03:01:31 EDT 2007
Table Suva-23 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Seat 4: BldZwtTrn ( $569.06)
Seat 5: caton ( $165.72)
BldZwtTrn posts small blind (1.0).
caton posts big blind (2.0).
Dealt to BldZwtTrn [ 5s, 5h ]
BldZwtTrn raises (5.0) to 6.0
caton raises (16.0) to 18.0
BldZwtTrn calls (12.0)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4c, 6h, 3c ]
caton bets (36.0)
BldZwtTrn raises (80.0) to 80.0
caton calls (44.0)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 8d ]
caton bets (67.72)
caton is all-In.
BldZwtTrn calls (67.72)
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: $328.44 | Rake: $3.0
Board: [ 4c 6h 3c 8d 4h ]
BldZwtTrn balance $0, bet $0, collected $328.44, net +$0 [ 5s 5h ] [ ]
caton balance $0, bet $0, lost $0.0 [ Ah 2c ] [ ]

At the end of this session I won about 2K which was almost $1 per hand.

My winrates @ NL200 are really spectacular at the moment. For example:

My winrate during the last week was 11,54 PTBB/100 (14K hands)
My winrate in february is 9,13 PTBB/100 (36K hands)
My total winrate @ NL200 8,99 PTBB/100 (57K hands)

This really shows that my game is still improving here. Offcourse I had some luck during the last week, because I think my long term winrate (100K+) should be somewhere close to 8.

2007 only:
Hands played : 93,915
$ Won in cashgames : $23,375.56
PTBB/100 : 6,23 (8,8 on Everest, 3,9 on Stars)
MT ratio : 6,57
Hourly win rate: $143,38

Still going strong

Poker is till going very well. I was just checking some of my PT stats in 2007 (80K hands) and it really looked nice. I won money with every single PP for example. So it seems that the small changes in my strategy have worked ok.
And with the hands that I put money in there are only 6 (KJo, ATo, 87s, T8s, A5s and J9s) with which I lost more then 1 buy-in ($200). And there is just one of these with which I lost slightly more then $400 (J9s).

This morning I played a session at Pokerstars again ( didn't play there for almost a week). The first 30 minutes I really had to adjust to the hyperagressive pre-flop game there on NL200 (compared to Everest). Overall it's a lot more difficult to play there, but there are still plenty of fish there as well.

Some hands from the session:

POKERSTARS GAME #8547736654: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/02/21 - 04:10:00 (ET)
Table 'Amphios II' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: 369Dan ($330.10 in chips)
Seat 2: ayoria ($393.45 in chips)
Seat 3: BaronVonBer ($103.55 in chips)
Seat 4: AKA_PSV ($722.30 in chips)
Seat 5: $GM$AN$EY$ ($324.60 in chips)
Seat 6: xxGooilersxx ($197 in chips)
369Dan: posts small blind $1
ayoria: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AKA_PSV [Qh Ad]
BaronVonBer: folds
AKA_PSV: raises $6 to $8
$GM$AN$EY$: folds
xxGooilersxx: raises $18 to $26

This guy (27/21/1) was 3-betting almost all the time from the blinds against a steal or from the button, but never showed a hand down. AQ is not really the hand you want to play in re-raised pot, but this time I decided that is was time to take a stand and as he was not that agressive postflop so I called.

369Dan: folds
ayoria: folds
AKA_PSV: calls $18

*** FLOP *** [2d 5c Qc] -> Flops looks perfect, but the problem is that there's not one hand that is paying you off if you bet here, so I decide to check.

AKA_PSV: checks
xxGooilersxx: checks
*** TURN *** [2d 5c Qc] [6s]

AKA_PSV: checks > As he didn't bet the flop I don't think I'm have to be afraid of the flushdraw so I check again to get maximum value out of worse hand (mostly bluffs, but also hands like JJ/TT).
xxGooilersxx: bets $42
AKA_PSV: calls $42

*** RIVER *** [2d 5c Qc 6s] [8c]

AKA_PSV: checks -> The third flushcard falls, so again betting is stupid as he will not call with a worse hand.
xxGooilersxx: bets $129 and is all-in
AKA_PSV: calls $129

This call took me a while, but his push just didn't look like it wanted a call. I also thought that he would have bet the flop with a flushdraw, so then it must be a bluff, because spots like this are most of the time the nuts or a total bluff.

*** SHOW DOWN ***

xxGooilersxx: shows [2s Ks] (a pair of Deuces)
AKA_PSV: shows [Qh Ad] (a pair of Queens)
AKA_PSV collected $394 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $397 | Rake $3
Board [2d 5c Qc 6s 8c]
Seat 1: 369Dan (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: ayoria (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: BaronVonBer folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: AKA_PSV showed [Qh Ad] and won ($394) with a pair of Queens
Seat 5: $GM$AN$EY$ folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: xxGooilersxx (button) showed [2s Ks] and lost with a pair of Deuces

POKERSTARS GAME #8548009223: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/02/21 - 05:06:52 (ET)
Table 'Henan' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: ayoria ($288.70 in chips)
Seat 2: cerebos ($201.50 in chips)
Seat 3: smidebrandt ($246.05 in chips) >>> 76/47/3 uberdonkey
Seat 4: AKA_PSV ($275.75 in chips)
Seat 5: Acid Fire ($584.15 in chips)
Seat 6: SmittyUF ($189 in chips)
SmittyUF: posts small blind $1
ayoria: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AKA_PSV [As Ks]
cerebos: folds
smidebrandt: calls $2
AKA_PSV: raises $8 to $10
Acid Fire: calls $10
SmittyUF: folds
ayoria: calls $8
SmittyUF is sitting out
smidebrandt: raises $24 to $34
AKA_PSV: raises $241.75 to $275.75 and is all-in
Acid Fire: folds
ayoria: folds
smidebrandt: calls $212.05 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [5d 2h 7s]
*** TURN *** [5d 2h 7s] [Td]
*** RIVER *** [5d 2h 7s Td] [6h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
smidebrandt: shows [8h 8c] (a pair of Eights)
AKA_PSV: mucks hand
smidebrandt collected $510.10 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $513.10 | Rake $3
Board [5d 2h 7s Td 6h]
Seat 1: ayoria (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: cerebos folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: smidebrandt showed [8h 8c] and won ($510.10) with a pair of Eights
Seat 4: AKA_PSV mucked [As Ks]
Seat 5: Acid Fire (button) folded before Flop
Seat 6: SmittyUF (small blind) folded before Flop


2007 only:
Hands played : 79,194
$ Won in cashgames : $20,950.98
PTBB/100 : 6,36 (8,4 on Everest, 4,2 on Stars)
MT ratio : 6,40
Hourly win rate: $147,40

Another Quick update

Hands played : 109,689 (since 27/11/2006, 2 screens)
$ Won in cashgames : $21,722.81
PTBB/100 : 5,50
MT ratio : 6,25 (some laptop 4-tabling)
Hourly win rate: $111.81
Current BR: $41,259

2007 only:
Hands played : 65,395
$ Won in cashgames : $16,260.88
PTBB/100 : 6,01
MT ratio : 6,30
Hourly win rate: $137,82

My first 24 hours as a 'pro'

Today was my first day as 'poker pro'. I played a ton of hands (9,622 + FTOPS 6 max). As much as I played today I will probably never do again, but I had to catch up a little bit after not playing for like 10 days so today was a monster session.

But at the end of the day I was up $2,732.29 for a nice hourly rate of $162 (how the .... did I play 16,8 hours....). I also played the FTOPS 6max tourney and as usual was out somewhere in the middle after losing every single coinflip and not getting any cards at all (I hate donkaments) so thats -$216.

If I can maintain this hourly rate, I will be more then happy. Because after all I'm still only playing NL200 and I really feel that my winrate there in comparison with the low variance is best for me.

I close this nice first day with a very nice graph.....

Quick update

Today is my first day as a 'pro', but before getting really to work, I will go to Val Thorens for a week to do some skiing.
So this is the last update for at least a week.

Hands played : 90,247 (since 27/11/2006, 2 screens)
$ Won in cashgames : $17,254.09
PTBB/100 : 5,36
MT ratio : 6,12 (some laptop 4-tabling)
Hourly win rate: $106.49
Current BR: $37,061

Best hands:

AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AQs/AQo/66/98s/ATs/AKs

Worst hands:

87s/97s/76s/J9s/T8s/64s/QJs/A7s/94s/54s

My best month ever

2007 couldn't have started any better then this. Starting February 12 I will be playing poker full-time (playing at least twice as much hands as I'm doing now) so this is a great start of this very exciting new year for me.

Two reasons for this great month are probably a good game selection and also some important improvements I'm currently making into my game. Studying my game is very important and I'm always looking for leaks that can be fixed and even when I'm winning, I probably have lots of leaks that can be fixed easily at the stakes I'm currently playing (NL200/NL400).

I don't want to go in great detail about the things I'm changing to my game, but it's mainly based on position, dealing with 3-bets and check-raising on turn with different kind of hands.
I also notice that my reading skills are getting better and better which is obvious when you're playing more, but it is just nice to see that it improves your winrate over time.


Below some hands from yesterday when I had a nice session on Party:

#Game No : 5624047286
***** Hand History for Game 5624047286 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, January 28, 17:43:26 ET 2007
Table Table 125784 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Sumpfbeeba ( $524.85 )
Seat 3: rol1111 ( $23.03 )
Seat 4: helena21 ( $118.17 )
Seat 2: PayStation4 ( $228.60 )
Seat 5: IneedPot_ ( $215 ) -> regular standard TAG
PayStation4 posts small blind [$1].
rol1111 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PayStation4 [ Qh Qc ]
helena21 folds
IneedPot_ raises [$8]
Sumpfbeeba folds
PayStation4 raises [$25] -> standard
rol1111 folds
IneedPot_ calls [$18]

** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, Qd, Kh ] ->drawy flop, but I think I'm ahead of his range which I think is 88+ (22-77) / AQ+ / some SC's (T9)

PayStation4 bets [$36]
IneedPot_ calls [$36] -> I don't think he has a set here, but probably has some outs with his A/T or he flopped the straight.

** Dealing Turn ** [ 8h ] -> completes flush, but I'm not to scared here about a flush because there are not much possibilties on the flush here as the J and K are out already and I think he would have raised a combo draw like AhQh.

PayStation4 checks -> this looks really weak, and when he bets (which I think he does on this board) with some draw or a pair with a draw he will be comitted to call if I C/R.

IneedPot_ bets [$80]
PayStation4 raises [$160]
IneedPot_ is all-In [$73]

** Dealing River ** [ 7c ]
PayStation4 shows [ Qh, Qc ]three of a kind, Queens.
IneedPot_ doesn't show [ Th, Ts ]a pair of Tens.
PayStation4 wins $7 from side pot #1 with three of a kind, Queens.
PayStation4 wins $430 from the main pot with three of a kind, Queens.

Stacking the same (dutch) fish twice in 12 minutes....

#Game No : 5624154404
***** Hand History for Game 5624154404 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, January 28, 18:18:46 ET 2007
Table Table 125784 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: helena21 ( $243.07 )
Seat 2: PayStation4 ( $494.88 )
Seat 6: Paddo80 ( $93.40 )
Seat 1: SelfSaboteur ( $209.95 )
Seat 5: EatTh1s ( $398 )
Seat 3: maykel33 ( $237.05 )
maykel33 posts small blind [$1].
helena21 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PayStation4 [ Td Kd ]
EatTh1s folds
Paddo80 raises [$4]
SelfSaboteur folds
PayStation4 calls [$4] -> On the button I'm calling this
maykel33 calls [$3]
helena21 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, Jd, Ts ]
maykel33 bets [$15]
Paddo80 calls [$15]

PayStation4 calls [$15] -> Raising here against a fish (and shorty) is not necessary, you don't have fold equity when they have a hand and when you hit they pay you off anyhow

** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
maykel33 bets [$50]
Paddo80 folds
PayStation4 raises [$100] -> A nice mini-raise to suck him in
maykel33 calls [$50]
** Dealing River ** [ 6h ]
maykel33 checks
PayStation4 bets [$100] -> by min-raising turn I now can get his whole stack without overbetting

maykel33 calls [$100]
PayStation4 shows [ Td, Kd ]a flush, King high.
maykel33 doesn't show [ Th, 3h ]two pairs, Tens and Sixes.

No comments needed on this one.....

#Game No : 5624186549
***** Hand History for Game 5624186549 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, January 28, 18:30:23 ET 2007
Table Table 125784 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: helena21 ( $201.57 )
Seat 2: PayStation4 ( $704.88 )
Seat 6: Paddo80 ( $93.20 )
Seat 1: SelfSaboteur ( $200 )
Seat 5: EatTh1s ( $392 )
Seat 3: maykel33 ( $198 )
Paddo80 posts small blind [$1].
SelfSaboteur posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PayStation4 [ Ah Jd ]
PayStation4 raises [$8]
maykel33 calls [$8]
helena21 folds
EatTh1s folds
Paddo80 folds
SelfSaboteur folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, Js, 4c ]
PayStation4 bets [$10]
maykel33 raises [$25]
PayStation4 calls [$15]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
PayStation4 checks
maykel33 bets [$100]
PayStation4 calls [$100]
** Dealing River ** [ Kd ]
PayStation4 bets [$67]
maykel33 is all-In [$65]
PayStation4 shows [ Ah, Jd ]three of a kind, Jacks.
maykel33 doesn't show [ Td, Ks ]two pairs, Kings and Jacks.
PayStation4 wins $2 from side pot #1 with three of a kind, Jacks.
PayStation4 wins $396 from the main pot with three of a kind, Jacks.

Hands played in January: ~42,000
Won in cash games : $ 10,300
Bonus received : $ 450
Winrate @ NL200 : ~ 6 PTBB/100

Current Bankroll : ~$35,000

Short update

Just a short update for now wth some nice stats and a very nice graph...

Stats since 27/11/2006 (2 screens / 8-tabling)

Played hands: 70,342
$ won : $11,730.55
PTBB/100 : 4,78
MT Ratio : 6,18
Hourly rate : $94,77

Current Bankroll : ~ $31K

Most Profitable 10 hands: Biggest losers
1. AA 6.33 BB/hand 1. 97s - 0.98 BB/hand (not my favorite anymore...)
2. KK 3.05 BB/hand 2. 87s - 0.97 BB/hand
3. QQ 2.87 BB/hand 3. 76s - 0.67 BB/hand
4. JJ 2.37 BB/hand 4. KJs - 0.55 BB/hand
5. 98s 1.54 BB/hand 5. A7s - 0.42 BB/hand
6. KQs 1.48 BB/hand 6. 54s - 0.38 BB/hand
7. AKs 1.45 BB/hand 7. 64s - 0.33 BB/hand
8. AQo 1.25 BB/hand 8. A4s - 0.32 BB/hand
9. 66 1.24 BB/hand 9. A6s - 0.31 BB/hand
10. TT 1.23 BB/hand 10. 86s - 0.31 BB/hand

So yeah....I love suited connectors....

Then a real nice graph on which you can see how stable my profit is growing in the long run. This is a graph of my last 100K hands.

Another new site...

Finally an update again. This weekend I decided to give Everest a try. Heard some good stories about it, but I always hated (and still do) the software and hate the fact that you can't use pokertracker/gametime there. They also don't have any bonuses or rakeback so I wasn't expecting much....but wow Everest is just total different poker.

I started with $2500 on NL200 and there are just no good TAG's at all. You have some regulars, but most of them suck and are probably only winning because 60% just don't understand poker at all. I think I played around 6,000 hands there the last 2 days and there are maybe 3 to 4 players at most that would be winners at PokerStars NL100.

The difference is just huge. The main thing on which you notice it, is the betting sizes. No one seems to know what a proper raise is even though there is a bet pot button. Some people also don't have a check button, but just keep betting $2 in a $40 pot. The funniest thing was when the pot was about $35 on the river with 3 players (including me) in it. The board was something like AQ877 and someone betted $2, I called with 33 (im never ever folding for $2 in such a pot) and the third person made it $4 (woohooo scary), so the first person folded and I (offcourse) called. and he showed KJ....well I think this sums it all up.

I also was all-in (for about $150) with AK vs A7 (he called my all-in).
So there is a big chance I will play some more poker on Everest.
I ended my 2 sessions with just over 2 times my buy-in on Everest ($5020).

Current BR: ~$27,500

First session of 2007 and some BR management

In my first 2007 session I had a terrible start.
Lost $500 within 10 minutes. The first pot was wit AKs against KK pre-flop all-in.
I knew this player was verry agressive and so I called his all-in after my 4-bet,
this time he had a hand. The second big pot was with QQ pre-flop all-in against AK.
Again against a very aggressive player who pushed all-in after my 4-bet and with A and K on the flop my queens were no good.
And the last one (50BB) was with KK vs AA which went all-in on the flop.

After that I made a huge comeback and ended the session up $1100 in about 2200 hands.
Biggest pot ($700) was one were I had AA and my opponent AK on a A high flop.
I also had a AA vs KK again but this time in my advantage. Overall I was pretty happy with my game although I noticed that there are some tough players on Stars. I tend to have the most problems with the 22/20/6 type of players. When they enter a pot it's almost always with a (re) raise, they probably are re-raising almost any pair on the button, which is very tough to play against, especially OOP.

Bankroll management and winrate

Another topic I was thinking about lately was BR management in corresponce with your winrate.I read a lot of forums and then it's very common to hear players say "I'm a 6 PTBB/100 winner". Most of the time those players, played about 50,000 hands and they think the winrate they had during that stretch of hands is 'their winrate'. In fact, when you've been winning 6 PTBB/100 over 50,000 hands you're longterm winrate is with 99% confidence between 1,38 and 10,62!
So the only thing you can conclude is that your at least a winner, but that's about it. Another example: you can tell with 99% confidence that you're winning between 3 and 4 PTBB/100 when you have a winrate of 3,5 PTBB/100 over 4,5 million hands!!

What has this to do with bankrollmanagement? You always hear that you need at least 20 buy-ins so you have little risk of going broke. But to get this to work you at least need to be a winner, otherwise a 100 buy-in BR is not even enough offcourse. But when can you say that you're a winner?? As told earlier it takes 50,000 hands of 6PTBB/100 winning to be sure you're a winner AT THAT LEVEL, but it takes 100,000 hands of 3,5 PTBB/100 winning to be 99% sure.
Also a winner at NL50 doesn't mean that you're a winner a NL100. Even a winning player over the past year, might be a loser this year because this year because of the much tougher games....

So a sufficient bankroll might not be the reason to move up, for me it's time to move up when I have shown over enough hands that I'm a more then normal winner (3+ PTBB/100) at a level. Yes this might take me 100,000 hands per level, but at least gives me the confidence (99%) that I'm a winner at that level.

ps: Calculations have been done with StDev of 40 (my Stdev), but this is somewhat on low side (some people I heard of had one of 60). You can look your StDev up in Pokertracker BTW.